This week the Trump administration’s sweeping new 50% tariff took effect on Brazilian coffee imports to the US. Despite Brazil being its top coffee supplier, accounting for around a third of all US imports there was no exemption for the Brazilian bean. US importers are bracing: one expert dubbed it “a tax on Americans’ mornings.” Some roasters are already projecting price hikes of 30 % or more for downstream consumers. So what is Brazil doing to cope with this and why should we care about it here in the UK?
🇨🇳Enter China
With US doors slamming shut, Brazil has turned to China. Beijing has authorised 183 Brazilian coffee exporters, a record, to sell into its booming domestic coffee market.
Long‑term strategy is brewing with Brazil’s ApexBrasil and Chinese giant Luckin Coffee have struck a US $2.5 billion deal, covering 240,000 tonnes of beans from 2025–29. While China held only 31,500 tonnes of Brazilian exports in H1 2025, that’s swiftly climbing but still a tiny fraction of the massive US market (Brazil sold around 8 million bags to the US in 2024).
🇬🇧What it means for us here in Blighty
Even though the UK isn’t directly affected by the Brazil tariffs the impact is global:
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Global supply chain disruptions: UK roasters may struggle sourcing Brazilian beans or face cost pressure if US buyers hoard stock.
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Shift in global pricing dynamics: UK imports from Colombia, Ethiopia, or Central America may become relatively more expensive as traders scramble for alternatives.
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EU deal advantage: The EU continues tariff‑free access to Brazilian coffee, giving UK roasters with EU partners or stockpiles a buffer.
☕️ Final Sip
Brazil is playing a global chessboard. For the UK coffee scene, these trade tussles mean watching shifts in bean routes, prices, and supply chain politics. A team of us from Rave are currently in Brazil to make sure the brews you enjoy from Brazil continue to be in your hopper for years to come.
