If you’ve noticed your morning flat white getting pricier, you’re not imagining things. And the sad news is, it isn’t going to be going down anytime soon.
The C-market—the global benchmark for trading arabica coffee—has been on a wild ride upwards over the past two years, with no signs of slowing down. In February 2025, arabica futures have now surpassed $4 per pound, marking a dramatic increase from $3.44 in early 2024 and just $1.96 in 2023. That’s more than doubled in two years—and for coffee lovers, it’s a big deal.
What’s the C-Market, and Why Does It Matter?
The C-market, set by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York, determines the base price for green (unroasted) arabica coffee worldwide. It’s like the stock market for coffee—prices shift based on supply, demand, weather, and speculation. The price set here impacts what farmers get paid and, ultimately, what you pay for your coffee.
What’s Driving the Surge? 📈
First, the weather. Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer, has been hit with extreme droughts, cutting yields and tightening global supply. Over in Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, heavy rains at harvest time damaged robusta crops, pushing robusta prices up and forcing many roasters to lean on arabica instead.
Then there’s demand. Coffee consumption continues to rise globally, with specialty coffee growing in popularity. Fewer beans + more demand = higher prices.
Demand has outstripped production for the past few years already and The World Coffee Research industry trade group predicts that in less than two decades demand will outstrip supply by 35 million bags.
The Bigger Picture 🌎
It’s not just about the weather. Climate change, supply chain disruptions, and economic pressures are all squeezing the market. According to Trading Economics, coffee prices have climbed over 20% in 2025 alone, reaching the $4 per pound mark on the 6th of February and since then has continued to trade upwards opening with a high of $4.29 on the day of posting this (11/02/2025)..
Industry experts warn that these price swings aren’t going anywhere. As Reuters reports, India’s coffee exports are expected to drop by over 10% in 2025, adding more pressure to an already tight supply chain.
So what does this mean for Rave?
Well we pinned down Ash, our head of coffee, to get her thoughts:
“At Rave we aim to purchase coffee in a more ethical and sustainable way - paying producers based on actual costs of production, plus premiums for high scoring specialty coffees. Historically these prices have always been well above the C-price. But the C price does still have an impact on our pricing. If the C market rises, then so does our price too.
On one hand this is what we at Rave have always dreamed of - market forces making the whole industry pay more to producers for their coffee, including the big corporates, supermarket brands and high street chains.
On the other hand, these extreme climbs in costs make the market volatile, and in volatile markets there are some winners, but many losers, and people start to change their buying habits. At Rave we will continue to purchase from suppliers we know and trust, who produce exceptional coffee, and we will continue to offer these products to our customers at affordable prices for as long as possible!”
Final Sip ☕️
So what’s next? Short answer: we don’t know. If weather conditions improve, production might stabilise. But with climate unpredictability and rising demand, prices could keep climbing. Either way, your morning cup is becoming a more valuable commodity—literally.
So, is this the new normal? Maybe. But one thing’s for sure: now is a great time to appreciate every sip.