Vietnam’s coffee exports shot up in value by 74% in the first quarter of 2024. That’s not a typo. It’s the sharpest leap in years and here is why it has happened and what it means for world coffee trade.
Vietnam exported slightly more coffee between January and March this year; about 8.5% but the price per tonne has seen a 74% year on year increase. Why? Basic economics: lower supply + higher demand = soaring prices.
Most of the action is in Robusta, Vietnam’s specialty and the backbone of the country's coffee economy. Robusta beans are known for their punchy strength and lower acidity, and they’re crucial for instant coffee blends.
A mix of drought, low stockpiles, and climate pressure has squeezed production. Meanwhile, roasters and buyers across Europe, Asia, and the US are scrambling to secure their shipments as demand for coffee increases across the planet. The result is a perfect storm: smaller harvests, growing demand and a bidding war for what’s left. And that isn’t even taking into account the looming Trump tariffs which are 48% on Vietnam exports which would add approximately $2,500 per ton to the price of Vietnamese Robusta being brought into the US.
Brazil’s Robusta harvest is underway. Arabica starts next month. More beans should ease the pressure, right? Maybe. But yields aren’t meeting expectations, thanks to heatwaves and unpredictable rain. The global supply gap is pretty vast.
Final Sip ☕️
We don’t stock any Vietnamese coffee so why are we writing about this? At Rave, we keep a close eye on all the changes going on in the coffee market. Not to panic, but to plan. Vietnam is acting a bit like the canary down the mine, letting us know what could come for the markets that will affect how much we are paying for green coffee; so seeing what is happening now, allows us to plan for what could come further down the road. We also see the increasing prices of Robusta as an opportunity. Increasing prices of instant coffee makes the price gap between instant and specialty coffee like ours smaller and smaller, helping more coffee drinkers move over to the good stuff…
